Population, Labour Force and Unemployment: Implications for the Creation of (Decent) Jobs, 1990-2030

By David E. Bloom and Mathew J. McKenna

We estimate that 734 million jobs will be required globally between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 percent for adults and at or below 8 percent for youth. The challenge of job creation, which is quite sizeable in historical perspective, is further compounded by the fact that the majority of new jobs will be required in countries in which ‘decent’ jobs are less prevalent.