Jakarta Post
International bodies and governments must
immediately establish effective mechanisms and create infrastructure to
help the world’s poor cope with the climate change shocks that will
devastate their lives, a food security expert said. “The climate change is real and is posing great threats for the
availability of food around the world,” said Menghestab Haile, Food
Security Early Warning Advisor of the United Nations World Food
Programme (WFP). He was speaking at a side event of the United Nations Frameworks of
Convention for Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) at the Grand Hyatt
Hotel in Nusa Dua, Bali. “WFP is presently fighting the hunger and destitution brought about
by floods, droughts and other extreme events spurred by climate
change,” he added. With estimated temperature increases of between 2 and 3 C, climate
change will bring with it more intense tropical storms as sea
temperatures also rise, long droughts and other extreme climatic
conditions in every corner of the world, especially in African, Asian
and Latin American countries. “Climate change threatens agriculture both in developed and
developing countries. It has dramatic multiplier effects,” Haile added.
Climate shocks such as drought and flood can cause grave setbacks in
nutritional status as food availability declines, prices rise and
employment opportunities shrink. Agricultural production and employment underpin many national
economies. The agricultural sector accounts for over one-third of
export earnings in around 50 developing countries, including Indonesia,
and for almost half of employment in the developing world. According to UNDP’s report, agricultural potential could increase by
eight percent in developed countries, primarily as a result of longer
growing seasons, while in the developing world it could fall by nine
per cent by 2080. With three-quarters of the world’s poor dependent on agricultural
production, this has important implications for global poverty
reduction efforts. Emerging patterns of climate change risk in agriculture will have
important implications for human development. Around three of four
people in the world living on less than US$1 a day reside in rural
areas. The same constituency also accounts for more than 800 million
people in the world who are malnourished. National projections for climate change in many regions in the world
confirm potentially large-scale economic losses and damage to
livelihoods. In Indonesia, climate models simulating the impact of temperature
changes, soil moisture content and rainfall on agricultural
productivity show a wide dispersion of results, with yields falling by
four per cent for rice and 50 per cent for maize. Losses will be
especially marked in coastal areas where agriculture is vulnerable to
salt water incursion. “While the risks of climate change affect almost all societies, the
poor households with their limited risk management capacity will,
however, suffer the most,” Haile confirmed. The inability of poor households to cope with climate shocks is
reflected in the immediate human impacts, and increasing poverty. Climate change will lower the incomes and reduce the opportunities
for poverty reduction. By 2080, the number of additional people at risk
of hunger could reach 600 million. Deteriorating nutrition and falling incomes generate a twin threat:
increased vulnerability to illness and fewer resources for medical
treatment. Drought and floods are often catalysts for wide-ranging
health problems, including increases in diarrhea among children,
cholera, various skin-related problem and acute under-nutrition. WFP has been active in implementing a number of approaches including
humanitarian response mechanisms, assessment, vulnerability analysis
and mapping. “We have been carrying out analysis and mapping as well as
comprehensive food security and vulnerability analysis in 80
countries,” he said. WFP is now developing an Insurance Scheme for the poor as hunger safety nets for livelihood protection. “Climate shocks can have devastating consequences for household assets and savings,” said Haile. Assets such as live animals represent something more than a safety
net for coping with climate shocks. They provide people with a
productive resource, nutrition, collateral for credit, and a source of
income to meet health and education costs, while also providing
security in the event of crop failures. Their loss increases future
vulnerability.
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