Yhiah News Agency
How the world deals with climate change
today will have a direct bearing on the human development prospects of
a large section of humanity. Failure will consign the poorest 40
percent of the world`s population - some 2.6 bn people - to a future of
diminished opportunity. This finding has been released in the new UN
Development Programme`s Human Development Report ‘Fighting climate
change: Human solidarity in a divided world` which was officially
presented by Francis M. O`Donnell, UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine
and Vitaliy Nakhlupin, Chairman of the National Agency for Ecological
Investments, according to the UN Office to Ukraine. With
governments preparing to gather in Bali, Indonesia to discuss the
future of the Kyoto Protocol, the United Nations Development
Programme`s Human Development Report has warned that the world should
focus on the development impact of climate change that could bring
unprecedented reversals in poverty reduction, nutrition, health and
education. The Report`s starting point is that the battle against climate change can and must be won. "The
world lacks neither the financial resources nor the technological
capabilities to act. If we fail to prevent climate change it will be
because we were unable to foster the political will to cooperate", Mr
O`Donnell said. "We live today in a world that is divided at many
levels. People are separated by vast gulfs in wealth and opportunity. All
too often, religious cultural and ethnic identity are treated as a
source of division and difference from others. In the face of all these
differences, climate change provides a potent reminder of the one thing
that we share in common. It is called planet Earth. All nations and all
people share the same atmosphere. And we only have one," he concluded. Ukraine
ranks 18th after France, Brazil and Spain among 30 top countries with
the deepest carbon footprints, as Report says. Mr Nakhlupin told the
press-conference that Ukraine has been an active player within the
battle against climate change. "At many levels Ukraine promotes and
adheres to Kyoto protocol`s flexible norms. Currently, our country met
all the requirements to gain its right to using the Protocol`s
mechanisms as defined at the UN Climate Change Convention`s Seventh
Conference," he said. Mr Nakhlupin underlined the urgency for adopting
strategic thinking and approaches in finding solutions to ecological
problems. "It is time to develop a global ecological document - Earth`s
Ecological Constitution - which would unite all the earlier-adopted
agreements, regulating environment protection and sustainable
development and defining its institutions and compliance procedures,"
he argued. Developed nations have a historic
responsibility to cut emissions, climate-proof their growth and invest
heavily in adaptation in developing countries to prevent catastrophic
reversals in health, education and poverty reduction for the world`s
poor - and a narrow ten-year window of opportunity remains to act. The
report, Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world,
provides a stark account of the threat posed by global warming. It
argues that the world is drifting towards a "tipping point" that could
lock the world`s poorest countries and their poorest citizens in a
downward spiral, leaving hundreds of millions facing malnutrition,
water scarcity, ecological threats, and a loss of livelihoods. "Ultimately,
climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole. But it is the poor,
a constituency with no responsibility for the ecological debt we are
running up, who face the immediate and most severe human costs,"
commented UNDP Administrator Kemal Dervi?. The report
comes at a key moment in negotiations to forge a multilateral agreement
for the period after 2012-the expiry date for the current commitment
period of the Kyoto Protocol. It calls for a "twin track" approach that
combines stringent mitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less
than 2°C (3.6°F), with strengthened international cooperation on
adaptation. On mitigation, the authors call on developed
countries to demonstrate leadership by cutting greenhouse gas emissions
by at least 80% of 1990 levels by 2050. The report advocates a mix of
carbon taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade programmes, energy
regulation, and international cooperation on financing for low-carbon
technology transfer. Turning to adaptation, the report
warns that inequalities in ability to cope with climate change are
emerging as an increasingly powerful driver of wider inequalities
between and within countries. It calls on rich countries to put climate
change adaptation at the centre of international partnerships on
poverty reduction. "We are issuing a call to action, not
providing a counsel of despair," commented lead author Kevin Watkins,
adding, "Working together with resolve, we can win the battle against
climate change. Allowing the window of opportunity to close would
represent a moral and political failure without precedent in human
history." He described the Bali talks as a unique opportunity to put
the interests of the world`s poor at the heart of climate change
negotiations. The report provides evidence of the
mechanisms through with the ecological impacts of climate change will
be transmitted to the poor. Focusing on the 2.6 billion people
surviving on less than US$2 a day, the authors warn forces unleashed by
global warming could stall and then reverse progress built up over
generations. Among the threats to human development identified by
Fighting climate change: The breakdown of agricultural
systems as a result of increased exposure to drought, rising
temperatures, and more erratic rainfall, leaving up to 600 million more
people facing malnutrition. Semi-arid areas of sub-Saharan Africa with
some of the highest concentrations of poverty in the world face the
danger of potential productivity losses of 26% by 2060. An additional 1.8 billion people facing water stress by 2080, with
large areas of South Asia and northern China facing a grave ecological
crisis as a result of glacial retreat and changed rainfall patterns. Displacement through flooding and tropical storm activity of up to 332
million people in coastal and low-lying areas. Over 70 million
Bangladeshis, 22 million Vietnamese, and six million Egyptians could be
affected by global warming-related flooding. Emerging health risks, with an additional population of up to 400 million people facing the risk of malaria. Setting
out the evidence from a new research exercise, the authors of the Human
Development Report argue that the potential human costs of climate
change have been understated. They point out that climate shocks such
as droughts, floods and storms, which will become more frequent and
intense with climate change, are already among the most powerful
drivers of poverty and inequality-and global warming will strengthen
the impacts. "For millions of people, these are events
that offer a one-way ticket to poverty and long-run cycles of
disadvantage," says the report. Apart from threatening lives and
inflicting suffering, they wipe out assets, lead to malnutrition, and
result in children being withdrawn from school. In Ethiopia, the report
finds that children exposed to a drought in early childhood are 36%
more likely to be malnourished-a figure that translates into 2 million
additional cases of child malnutrition. While the report
focuses on the immediate threats to the world`s poor, it warns that
failure to tackle climate change could leave future generations facing
ecological catastrophe. It highlights the possible collapse of the West
Antarctic ice sheets, the retreat of glaciers, and the stress on marine
ecosystems as systemic threats to humanity. "Of course
there are uncertainties, but faced with risks of this order of
magnitude uncertainty is not a case for inaction. Ambitious mitigation
is in fact the insurance we have to buy against potentially very large
risks. Fighting climate change is about our commitment to human
development today and about creating a world that will provide
ecological security for our children and their grandchildren," Mr.
Dervi? said. Avoiding dangerous climate change The
authors of the Human Development Report call on governments to set a
collective target for avoiding dangerous climate change. They advocate
a threshold of 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels (the current
level is 0.7°C, 1.3°F). Drawing on a new climate model,
the report suggests a ‘21st Century carbon budget` for staying within
this threshold. The budget quantifies the total level of greenhouse gas
emissions consistent with this goal. In an exercise that captures the
scale of the challenge ahead, the report estimates that
business-as-usual could result on current trends in the entire carbon
budget for the 21st Century being exhausted by 2032. The authors warn
that on current trends the world is more likely to breach a 4°C
threshold than stay within 2°C (3.6°F). The Human
Development Report addresses some of the critical issues facing
negotiators in Bali. While acknowledging the threat posed by rising
emissions from major developing countries, the authors argue that
northern governments have to initiate the deepest and
earliest cuts. They point out that rich countries carry overwhelming
historic responsibility for the problem, have far deeper carbon footprints, and have the financial and technological capabilities to act. "If
people in the developing world had generated per capita CO2 emissions
at the same level as people in North America, we would need the
atmosphere of nine planets to deal with the consequences," commented
Mr. Watkins. Using an illustrative framework for an
emissions pathway consistent with avoiding dangerous climate change,
the Human Development Report suggests that: Developed countries should cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% to 2050 and 30% by 2020 from 1990 levels. Developing
countries should cut emissions by 20 percent to 2050 from 1990 levels.
However, these cuts would occur from 2020 and they would be supported
through international cooperation of finance and low carbon technology
transfer. Measured against this benchmark, the authors find
that many of the targets set by developed country governments fall
short of what is required. It notes also that most developed countries
have failed to achieve even the modest reductions-averaging around 5%
from 1990 levels-agreed under the Kyoto Protocol. Even where ambitious
targets have been set, the report argues, few developed countries have
aligned stated climate security goals with concrete energy policies. Scenarios
for future emissions reinforce the scale of the challenge ahead. On
current trends, CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 50% to
2030-an outcome that would make dangerous climate change inevitable.
"The bottom line is that the global energy system is out of alignment
with the ecological systems that sustain our planet," commented Mr.
Watkins, adding: "realignment will take a fundamental shift in
regulation, market incentives, and international cooperation." Fighting
climate change identifies a range of policies needed to close the gap
between climate security statements and energy policies for avoiding
dangerous climate change. Among the most important: Pricing
carbon. The report argues that both carbon taxation and cap-and-trade
schemes have a role to play. Gradually rising carbon taxes would be a
powerful tool to change incentive structures facing investors. It also
stresses that carbon taxes need not imply an overall greater tax burden
because they could be compensated by tax reductions on labour income. Stronger
regulatory standards. The report calls on governments to adopt and
enforce tougher standards on vehicle emissions, buildings and
electrical appliances. Supporting the development of low
carbon energy provision. The report highlights the unexploited
potential for an increase in the share of renewable energy used, and
for breakthrough technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS).
International cooperation on finance and technology
transfer. The authors note that developing countries will not
participate in an agreement that provides no incentives for entry, and
which threatens to raise the costs of energy. The report argues for the
creation of a Climate Change Mitigation Facility (CCMF) to provide
$25-50 billion annually in financing the incremental low-carbon energy
investments in developing countries consistent with achieving shared
climate change goals. Drawing on economic modeling work,
the Human Development Report argues that the cost of stabilizing
greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million (ppm) could be limited to an
average to 1.6% of world GDP to 2030. "While these are real costs, the
costs of inaction will be far greater, whether measured in economic,
social or human terms," warned Mr. Dervi?. The report points out that
the cost of avoiding dangerous climate change represents less than
two-thirds of current world military spending. Adaptation efforts overlooked While
stressing the central medium-term role of mitigation, Fighting climate
change warns against neglecting the adaptation challenge. It points out
that, even with stringent mitigation, the world is now committed to
continued warming for the first half of the 21st Century. The report
warns that adaptation is needed to prevent climate change leading to
major setbacks in human development-and to guard against the very real
danger of insufficient mitigation. The report draws
attention to extreme inequalities in adaptation capacity. Rich
countries are investing heavily in climate-change defence systems, with
governments playing a leading role. By contrast, in developing
countries "people are being left to sink or swim with their own
resources," writes Desmond Tutu, Archbishop Emeritus of Cape Town, in
the report, creating a "world of ‘adaptation apartheid`." "Nobody
wants to understate the very real long-term ecological challenges that
climate change will bring to rich countries," Mr. Watkins commented.
"But the near term vulnerabilities are not concentrated in lower
Manhattan and London, but in flood prone areas of Bangladesh and
drought prone parts of sub-Saharan Africa." The Human
Development Report shows that international cooperation on adaptation
has been slow to materialize. According to the report, total current
spending through multilateral mechanisms on adaptation has amounted to
$26 million to date-roughly one week`s worth of spending on UK flood
defences. Current mechanisms are delivering small amounts of finance
with high transaction costs, the authors say. The report argues for reforms including: Additional
financing for climate proofing infrastructure and building resilience,
with northern governments allocating at least $86 billion annually by
2015 (around 0.2% of their projected GDP). Increased
international support for the development of sub-Saharan Africa`s
capacity to monitor climate and improve public access to meteorological
information. The integration of adaptation planning
into wider strategies for reducing poverty and extreme inequalities,
including poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSPs). Fighting
climate change concludes that "one of the hardest lessons taught by
climate change is that the historically carbon intensive growth, and
the profligate consumption in rich nations that has accompanied it, is
ecologically unsustainable." But the authors argue, "with the right
reforms, it is not too late to cut greenhouse gas emissions to
sustainable levels without sacrificing economic growth: rising
prosperity and climate security are not conflicting objectives."
Vovler a la lista <<<<<
