Zambia NHDR 2003 focuses on eradication of extreme poverty and hunger. Considering the severity of poverty in Zambia and the alarming decline of human development indicators over the past two decades, there is no more pertinent and urgent theme than the one chosen for the NHDR 2003.
The theme selection process was participatory, and the report preparation process was also designed to be participatory from the outset. An advisory team consisting of representatives of key development institutions, civil society, traditional rulers, members of parliament (ruling and opposition parties), and the government provided conceptual guidance during the report preparation process. There was also a more technical review team consisting of line ministry staff, UN system and NGO representatives that provided input on more specific aspects of analysis. Considering that broad based participation is intrinsically linked with national ownership, it can be concluded that the Zambia NHDR was indeed nationally driven and owned.
Moreover, the report evaluates national and international development plans and policies that have affected Zambia's human development situation, thus demonstrating that national and sub-national human development problems are intrinsically linked with international policies, and even national policies of "developed" countries. Embracing a national perspective does not mean locating problems only in national development plans and policies. Rather, it means tracing sub-national, national and international policy linkages that shape the situation in the country. Zambia NHDR 2003 does this very well.
Zambia NHDR 2003 was written by three independent consultants from RuralNet, the Agricultural Consultative Forum and the University of Zambia. The preparation process was highly participatory. A a broad-based review team was involved in the preparation process through formal review mechanisms. The specialization of the authors and reviewers is not identified (i.e. economist, social scientist, etc.), however, the analysis is multidisciplinary - it includes social and economic perspectives. At the same time, poverty and hunger are not only social and economic, but also political issues, as the recent debates around genetically modified crops indicate.
Moreover, the report draws on various national studies and surveys, including participatory assessments on poverty and its causes. Drawing on a wide variety of sources and inclusion of the perspectives of the poor are important features of a participatory and inclusive approach.
The report contains objective and reliable analysis and represents various viewpoints. It is critical of the way economic liberalisation policies were carried out and outlines preconditions for ensuring that liberal economic reforms have benefits for the poor rather than exacerbate an already dire situation, questions the benefits of Structural Adjustment Policies in Zambia and other developing countries, illuminates the recent debates about genetically modified crops in Zambia, as well as looks at the role of the international community in Zambia?s debt crises. Past policy choices are illustrated in the context of changes in the political environment.
Moreover, the review team is broad-based and, judging by its constitution, also represents various viewpoints. While independence of analysis is a matter of objective criteria, it is also a matter of cultivating a shared sense of independence of analysis through a participatory report preparation process. The combination of these factors leads to conclude that no single institution was in the position to overwhelmingly influence the content of the report.
The theme of the report is not only relevant, but absolutely urgent given the dire situation of human development in Zambia. The current report is the 4th NHDR. The previous reports focused on human poverty, provision of basic social services, and employment and sustainable livelihoods. The current report includes an overview of the previous reports, as well as reviews the impact of the human development paradigm on national policy making, thus placing itself firmly within continuous application of the human development approach in Zambia.
The report puts forth extensive and sophisticated analysis of extreme poverty and hunger in Zambia that includes review and analysis of the existing policy environment and traces human development trends over time. The report is very well structured. The clarity of analysis and recommendations is reinforced by a human development balance sheet in the beginning of the report, and a detailed table on the required actions to deal with poverty and hunger at the end of the report. The report thus provides various options for the reader to delve into the sophisticated and highly informative analysis that characterize the report, or to use it as a quick reference about the human development situation in Zambia in relation to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), as well as about required actions to deal with poverty and hunger.
Overview: Towards a poverty and hunger-free society: The overview places poverty and hunger in the international development context and points to the commitments the Zambian Government has made in step with the rest of the world to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger: adopted a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The overview presents the extent of the problem in Zambia - 73% of the population was considered poor in 1998 (an increase from 69% in 1991). HDI had increased during the period from 1975 to 1985 as a result of subsidies and free services and despite economic problems, but liberalisation policies of the 1980s and 1990s have been accompanied by a sharp reversal in HDI -the HDI of 1995 was lower than that in 1975. It seems, however, that the decline has "bottomed out"; the period from 1994 to 2000 has seen stabilization of the HDI and even a very slight upward trend. Despite the excellent introduction to the extent of the problem of poverty in Zambia, the report suffers from outdated data - poverty data is from 1998 and the last HDI is calculated for 2000.
The overview outlines four main reasons for doubling efforts of poverty eradication: (1) there are enough natural resources in Zambia, thus poverty eradication efforts need to focus on regeneration of productive assets and increasing productivity of producers; (2) agriculture's full potential has not been exploited (central theme of PRSP); (3) liberal economic policies can work for the poor if appropriate institutional reforms are carried out - infrastructure accessibility; combination of conservation farming, marketing and extension; decentralization and empowerment; (4) there are examples of success which need to be built on the social investment fund, the rural investment fund, and various local coping mechanisms.
Finally, the overview identifies seven areas of action: (1) promote sustainable agriculture; (2) improve domestic and international environment that supports growth and recovery of agriculture; (3) increase resource mobilization; (4) promote resource conserving technologies; (5) reduce vulnerability to risk; (6) governance and institutional framework needs to support the poor and the hungry; and (7) improve advocacy for poverty eradication.
This chapter explains the human development concept, the human poverty concept, the corresponding indices: HDI, HPI, GDI and GME, and how they might be useful for the policy community. Moreover, the chapter also explains the role NHDRs play in policy making and outlines the UNDP corporate principles for NHDR preparation. The chapter includes a discussion on the previous NHDRs produced in Zambia, and the impact human development paradigm has had on national policy making: greater appreciation of the multidimensional nature of human deprivation, greater focus on people in national poicy making; and recognition of the need for broad-based participation.
The chapter outlines the conceptual links between hunger, poverty and development, includes information on the severity of poverty in Zambia, and places interventions in the context of the PRSP and MDGs.
This is a very important chapter that places the current human development challenges within a historical perspective. The chapter describes the macroeconomic framework from 1968 onward, a period characterized by import substitution industrialization (ISI) policies leading to inefficient economic development, yet a continuously increasing HDI. 1970s were characterized by debt accumulation largely attributable to policies of the developed countries, thus calling for a moral and economic responsibility of the international community for finding a solution to the debt crises - total debt services as a percentage of exports is currently 19% in Zambia. The neoliberal reforms of the 1990s (summarized in a table format) took place at the expense of livelihoods and thus represented a reversal in development thinking whereas economic stability was given priority over well being of the population.
Analysis in this chapter questions the merits of Structural Adjustment Programmes and analyses the impact of liberal economic reforms on agriculture. The key conclusion is that the poor have not benefited from these reforms. In fact, their lives have often been affected negatively. However, instead of challenging the logic of the neo-liberal economic framework, the chapter argues that such reforms can have positive effects on the lives of the poor if certain preconditions are in place.
The chapter also calls for Zambia's participation in global norm-setting institutions which determine the terms of trade, for given that Zambia is exporter of primary products and importer of finished goods, trade has direct bearing on hunger and poverty. Focus on the international policy environment in light of tackling national poverty and hunger problems is one of the strengths of the report. In light of the previous neglect of pro-poor economic growth, the PRSP is evaluated positively with the following suggestions for improvement: (1) improve public expenditure management system, (2) increase emphasis on monitoring and evaluation; (3) enhance participation; (4) ensure coordination among development partners.
The chapter concludes that Zambia is one of the most liberal and poorest economies in the region, and outlines the following key policy challenges that are addressed in the remaining chapters: (1) generate equitable growth, (2) establish an optimal combination of macroeconomic policy environment, (3) ensure that policies are a real promise, not premise; (4) successful PRSP implementation; (5) implement policies that would prevent future crisis; (6) accelerate policy implementation.
Whereas the previous chapter outlined macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy framework, considered its impact on of human development, and provided policy recommendations at the global and national policy making levels, this chapter sets out to analyze what does poverty and hunger in Zambia look like.
Poverty is mapped through income and expenditure indicators. According to these indicators, 73% of the population was poor in 1998, and 79% experienced food insecurity in 2000/01. Some of the data reveals drawbacks in using income-based poverty lines to determine the extent of poverty - for example, the chapter includes data which indicates that 56% of children in extremely poor households are stunted, and 47% of children in non-poor households are also stunted. This raises questions about the relevance of an income-based poverty line in a country where extreme poverty, hunger and malnutrition are widespread. It is apparent that being in a 'non-poor' category determined by income does not mean that one is doing better with regard to non-income related indicators of poverty.
The chapter (and annexes) contains extensive statistical data on poverty and hunger (nutritional status, poverty by region, gender, education and employment of the head of the household, access to facilities, etc.), as well as poverty assessment on the basis of people's perceptions. The chapter concludes that people's understanding and assessment of poverty resonates with the human development concept. According to these perceptions, poverty has increased during the last decade. Moreover, the chapter argues that statistical evidence and people's perceptions coincide in identifying causes of poverty and hunger: while there is recognition that the causes are diverse and thus require a multi-pronged approach, drought and liberalisation are emphasized as the two main causes for the current conditions of severe poverty.
The chapter proceeds to consider the impact of people's coping strategies which are said to exacerbate poverty, as well as reviews the performance of agriculture. The latter is deemed poor - famine is increasing and self-sufficiency is decreasing. This calls for diversification of agricultural production, and participatory policy development and implementation. The chapter also reviews the recent debates on genetically modified crops and the decision of the Zambian Government not to allow them in the country, thus passing an opportunity to alleviate hunger. The chapter recommends introduction of bio-safety mechanisms to deal with GMOs.
This chapter outlines the alarming pattern of HDI decline in Zambia. Compared to other countries in Africa, the HDI in Zambia has deteriorated much more rapidly. The only positive aspect is that the decline may have bottomed out - there has been a marginal increase from 1998 to 2000 (from 0.37 to 0.47). The grim human development situation in Zambia is analysed in light of the MDGs: in order to meet the goal of halving poverty by 2015, poverty rate would have to drop by 30% in Zambia, whereas it had dropped by about 1.5% in the last seven years. Severe poverty is accompanied by reversals in education attainments, literacy rates, continuous gender inequality, alarming rise in maternal mortality rates, increase in malaria cases, and high HIV/AIDS prevalence rate.
This chapter illustrates the deepening human crisis in Zambia and calls for increased international funding in line with priorities identified in the PRSP.
While reiterating the conclusions of the previous chapters about the severity of poverty in Zambia and the required interventions, this concluding chapter argues that there have been positive developments that need to be expanded. For example, diversification of crops has been achieved by withdrawal of subsidized credit for maize; business skills training and micro-credit schemes have increased farmers' access to markets; non-traditional exports have contributed to the rise in agricultural exports. These are all interventions that assist the farmers in surviving the current liberal macro-economic policy environment. Once again, the authors do not challenge the liberal economic framework itself, but emphasize that liberal economic policies need to be combined with ensuring accessibility to markets through infrastructure development; implementing integrated technological packages, as well as promotion of decentralization and empowerment.
The concluding chapter identifies clear policy goals: (1) overcome the food crises through provision of food and health services, recovery of farm households and jump-starting agricultural development through appropriate technology; (2) improve capacity for resource mobilization, both domestic and foreign in the form of revenue, investment and aid, and handle debt sustainability; (3) introduce resource conserving technology in the agricultural sector; (4) reduce vulnerability to risk and provide safety nets to vulnerable groups: strengthen family support systems and mitigate HIV/AIDS, support poor farmers, improve early warning for environmental disasters; (5) institute pro-poor governance mechanisms: strengthen central government ? reform of civil service, and institute democratic decentralization; (6) provide strong advocacy and communications on poverty and hunger: identify the role of various partners, including the civil society, traditional leaders, the parliament, central government and the research community.
The concluding chapter includes a table on required actions to deal with poverty and hunger which identifies broad policy areas, specific actions within each area, as well as key players. Such presentation of policy recommendations is very valuable for the policy community.
The authors of the report demonstrate an in-depth understanding of the human development concept and related analytical and policy tools, such as the human poverty concept and index. Human development analysis is clearly linked with Millennium Development Goals in a human development balance sheet presented at the very outset of the report. This balance sheet provides frank assessment of the deteriorating human development situation in Zambia, and the enormous challenges entailed in reversing this trend. The balance sheet is very effective and imbues the subsequent analysis with a needed sense of urgency.
The report also considers the impact previous NHDRs have had on national policy making. Major achievements include recognition of the multi-dimensional nature of human deprivation, focus on people in national policy making and greater acceptance of the need for broad-based participation in policy making.
While the report includes a detailed discussion on the human poverty concept, it does not calculate the Human Poverty Index for Zambia. The chapter on poverty and hunger presents income and non-income indicators of poverty, though generally defines the poor according to an income-based poverty line. That income is often not a meaningful indicator of human poverty is illustrated by the fact that 47% of children in 'non-poor' households are stunted. This is a striking statistic and points to the challenge of using income-based poverty indicators in situations where poverty and hunger are widespread. In such situations, distinctions between extreme and moderate poverty are seemingly miniscule, and even the distinction between non-poor and poor is often questionable when taking into consideration non-income based human poverty indicators.
The relationship between food security and malnutrition exhibits similar trends: while 55% of children from families who experience severe food insecurity are stunted, the number of stunted children in families who fall under 'normal food security' is still extremely high - 40%. These statistics either call for an investigation of what accounts for the high percentage of stunted children in households that are considered non-poor, or for a substantive reconsideration of poverty measurement in extreme poverty situations such as in Zambia.
Overall, the report applies a thoroughly human development approach to analysis of poverty and hunger in Zambia. It recognizes the interdependence of various policy domains, including the macroeconomic policy framework, and puts forth sophisticated analysis of these linkages. The report draws on quantitative and qualitative data, including discussions on people's perceptions of poverty. The latter affirms the relevance of the human development approach, for people?s perceptions of poverty correspond to those advocated by the human development approach. Finally, the report considers the role of various stakeholders in the tremendous task to halt deterioration of human development in Zambia, as well as emphasizes the need for continuous policy analysis, monitoring and evaluation.
Zambia NHDR 2003 undertakes analysis of existing policy frameworks, sets clear policy goals, provides detailed description of steps to be taken under each of the goals and identifies key players for each policy intervention. Policy recommendations are concrete and clearly stated. The most innovative contribution is a table that summarizes policy recommendations in a clear and user-friendly manner. The report is an invaluable resource for national and international policy makers, because it provides sophisticated analysis, as well as an easy-to-use reference of required policy interventions.
The report views Zambia's situation in both national and international policy frameworks, thus transcending the usual 'country as a unit of analysis' framework. The report recognizes that international policies, as well as national policies of developed countries affect the situation in Zambia, and in order to trigger changes in the deteriorating human development situation, this interdependence has to be taken seriously. It is not just Zambian Government that needs to reevaluate its policies, but also international organizations and other national governments.
Although there are no specific surveys or qualitative analysis undertaken for the purposes of this report, the report draws on rich existing data. Its unique contribution is analysis of the existing data within a human development framework that recognizes the interdependence between macroeconomic policies, monetary and fiscal policies, service provision, people's perceptions of poverty and the overall state of human development.
The report calculates the HDI, and provides extensive data on income poverty and the characteristics that tend to accentuate poverty and food insecurity which include sex and age of the head of the household, size of the household, education and employment of the head of the household, income levels and sources, as well as residence and accessibility. At the same time, statistics on poverty are 5 years old from 1998. This is a weakness, considering the urgency of the issue. Similarly, the HDI is calculated for 2000. This is related to insufficient data collection capacity in the country, which is addressed in a separate text box in the concluding chapter of the report. The NHDR has faced great difficulties in obtaining timely data for the following reasons: long delays in releasing data; irregular conduct of surveys; and inconsistent presentation of variables. The report emphasizes that given the human catastrophe that has taken place in the last decade, social and economic indicators are essential. The following recommendations are put forth in order to improve data collection and availability: build capacity of the Central Statistics Office (CSO); harmonize support to the CSO; and restructure CSO to make the conducting of surveys more cost-effective.
Despite the data related difficulties, the report is able to demonstrate statistically that Zambia's human development has dramatically declined over the last decade. It includes numerous charts and tables that convincingly demonstrate the seriousness of the situation; however it would be beneficial to consider how effective these statistics are in situations such as Zambia's.
The report is extremely well written and accessible. The text is accompanied by tables, charts and text boxes. Human development situation and policy recommendations are summarized in succinct tables, thus making the main messages clear and accessible for the policy community.
There is no information in the report or on the website about how to obtain a copy of the report. The report is not available on the website. It seems there were follow-up activities organized, for the website contains a speech by the UNDP Resident Representative Aeneas C. Chuma on the occasion of a panel discussion on the NHDR held on 22 October 2003.
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