International Herald Tribune
By Kevin Watkins and Anders Berntell
A global problem
'Whisky is for drinking, water is for fighting over," Mark Twain once
said. At the start of the 21st century, his gloomy view on the water
side of the equation has been getting endorsements from an impressive -
if unlikely - cast of characters.
The Central Intelligence Agency, the accountancy firm
PricewaterhouseCoopers and, most recently, Britain's Ministry of
Defense have all raised the specter of future "water wars." With water
availability shrinking across the Middle East, Asia and sub- Saharan
Africa, so the argument runs, violent conflict between states is
increasingly likely.
The specter is also on the agenda for the experts from 140 countries
gathered this week at the annual World Water Week forum in Stockholm.
Meetings of water experts are not obvious forums for debating issues of
global peace and security. But the ghost of Mark Twain is in Stockholm
this week as we reflect on the links between water scarcity and violent
conflict between states.
So, here's the question. Are we heading for an era of "hydrological
warfare" in which rivers, lakes and aquifers become national security
assets to be fought over, or controlled through proxy armies and client
states? Or can water act as a force for peace and cooperation?
Observing recent events, it is difficult to avoid joining the ranks of
pessimists who see water wars not as a future threat, but a living
reality. Take the recent conflict in Lebanon. Beyond the unfolding
horror captured on our television screens, one event went almost
unnoticed. The destruction by Israeli bombs of irrigation canals
supplying water from the Litani River to farmland along the coastal
plain and parts of the Bekaa Valley threatens thousands of livelihoods.
The Litani irrigation system is not an isolated example. Last month in
Sri Lanka, the refusal of Tamil Tiger rebels to open a sluice gate for
canals that supply water to rice farmers sparked a full-scale military
assault that claimed the lives of 17 aid workers.
Water conflicts are invariably shaped by local factors. But the sheer
scale of these conflicts makes it impossible to dismiss them as
isolated events. What we are dealing with is a global crisis generated
by decades of gross mismanagement of water resources.
The facts behind the crisis tell their own story. By 2025, more than
two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it
difficult or impossible to mobilize the water resources needed to meet
the needs of agriculture, industry and households. Population growth,
urbanization and the rapid development of manufacturing industries are
relentlessly increasing demand for finite water resources.
Symptoms of the resulting water stress are increasingly visible. In
northern China, rivers now run dry in their lower reaches for much of
the year. In parts of India, groundwater levels are falling so rapidly
that from 10 percent to 20 percent of agricultural production is under
threat.
From the Aral Sea in Central Asia to Lake Chad in sub-Saharan Africa,
lakes are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. In effect, a large
section of humanity is now living in regions where the limits of
sustainable water use have been breached - and where water-based
ecological systems are collapsing.
The disputes erupting within countries are one consequence of
increasing scarcity. But water is the ultimate fugitive resource. Two
in every five people in the world live in river and lake basins that
span one or more international borders. And it is this hydrological
interdependence that has the potential to transmit heightened
competition for water across frontiers.
The Tigris and Euphrates river systems figure prominently at World
Water Week. No river system better demonstrates the nature of
hydrological interdependence. In Turkey, the Tigris and Euphrates
rivers are seen as an underexploited source of power and irrigation.
Viewed from Syria and Iraq, Turkish dams are a threat to hundreds of
thousands of livelihoods, with farmers losing access to water.
Underpinning the rivalry between states is the idea that sharing water
is a zero-sum game: Every drop of water secured by Turkish farmers
appears as a loss to Syrian farmers.
Consider, too, the huge river-diversion programs under consideration in
China and India, which see them as part of a national strategy for
transferring water from surplus to deficit areas. Neighboring
governments fear a catastrophic loss of water. Bangladesh has warned
that any diversion of the Ganges to meet the needs of India's cities
could undermine the livelihoods of millions of vulnerable farmers.
Identifying potential flashpoints for conflict does not require a
doctorate in hydrology. In the Middle East, the world's most severely
water-stressed region, more than 90 percent of usable water crosses
international borders. Forget oil: The most precious resource in the
region flows in the River Jordan, or resides in the aquifers that link
Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories.
The threats posed by competition for water are real enough - but for
every threat there is an opportunity. Cooperation tends to attract less
news than violent conflict. Perhaps that is why "water wars" get such
exaggerated coverage. The agreement under which Lesotho provides water
to the greater Johannesburg area in South Africa in return for
watershed management finance does not make front page news. Nor does
the Nile Basin Initiative, through which Egypt, Ethiopia and other
countries are exchanging the benefits of cooperation on the Nile. And
cooperation in West Africa between Senegal, Mali and Mauritania to
share the Senegal River is not likely to make prime- time new slots in
Europe. Yet cooperation over water is far more widespread than conflict.
None of this is to play down the risk of water wars. Like oil and other
energy resources, water is a source of life and livelihoods. It follows
that water security is every bit as integral to human progress as
energy security, with one large caveat: unlike oil, water has no known
substitutes. That is why no country can afford to suffer a catastrophic
loss of water resources.
How can the world move toward a future of cooperation rather than conflict on water? We believe that there are four broad rules.
First, governments have to stop treating water as an infinitely
available resource to be exploited without reference to ecological
sustainability. Yes, water is scarce in many countries. But the
scarcity is the product of poor economic policies. Improving the
efficiency of water use and encouraging conservation through pricing
and more efficient technologies in agriculture and industry would help
reduce scarcity. Some countries also have the option of conserving
local resources by importing the "virtual water" embedded in imported
agricultural produce.
Second, countries must avoid unilateralism. Any major upstream
alteration to a river system, or increase in use of shared groundwater,
should be negotiated, not imposed.
Third, governments should look beyond national borders to basin-wide
cooperation. Building strong river-basin institutions could provide a
framework for identifying and exploiting opportunities for cooperation.
Aid donors could do far more in this area. At present, transboundary
cooperation receives about $350 million a year in aid. This is a small
investment in an area that has the potential to generate high returns.
The European Union has a crucial role to play because of its experience
in building institutions for managing the great European rivers, such
as the Danube and the Rhine.
Fourth, political leaders need to get involved. Too often, dialogue on
transboundary water management is dominated by technical experts.
Whatever their level of expertise, dedication and professionalism, the
absence of political leadership tends to limit the scope for
far-reaching cooperation.
The most obvious reason for greater political and financial investment
in transboundary water cooperation is spelled out in an unlikely
source. "By means of water," says the Koran, "we give life to
everything." As a single human community sharing a single planet we
need to look beyond our national borders to work out ways of sustaining
the ecological systems on which human progress depends. By means of
water, perhaps we can display a capacity for resolving problems and
sustaining through cooperation.
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