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@article{
  author = {Dikhanov, Yuri},
  title = {Trends in Global Income Distribution, 1970-2000, and Scenarios for 2015},
  journal = {UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)},
  year = {2005},
  location = {New York},
  URL = {},
  abstract = {The paper builds on the author’s prior research in areas of evolution of the global income distribution and of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of density functions. The 1970-2000 estimates are augmented with two 2015 scenarios: (a) distribution-neural growth (national distributions kept constant) and (b) pro-poor growth (the poor’s income grows at twice the average rate until 2015). The scenarios are based on historical 1990-2002 trends in GDP growth and UN population projections for 2015. Compared to 2000, the distribution-neutral growth scenario for 2015 shows a decline in the Gini – 0.300, Theil 1 and 2 – 0.114 and 0.082, respectively, and a decline in absolute poverty from 1,172 mln. in 2000 to 689 mln. in 2015. These changes are explained to a large degree by the projected fast growth in India and China. The pro-poor growth scenario resulted in additional 253 mln. people rescued from poverty. Two more simulations are presented: (1) transfers being made to the poor in 2000, and (2) distribution-neutral growth occurring during 1970-2000. An annex discusses advantages of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of income distributions.}
}

AU - Dikhanov, Yuri
TI - Trends in Global Income Distribution, 1970-2000, and Scenarios for 2015
PT - Journal Article
DP - 2005
TA - UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)
AB - The paper builds on the author’s prior research in areas of evolution of the global income distribution and of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of density functions. The 1970-2000 estimates are augmented with two 2015 scenarios: (a) distribution-neural growth (national distributions kept constant) and (b) pro-poor growth (the poor’s income grows at twice the average rate until 2015). The scenarios are based on historical 1990-2002 trends in GDP growth and UN population projections for 2015. Compared to 2000, the distribution-neutral growth scenario for 2015 shows a decline in the Gini – 0.300, Theil 1 and 2 – 0.114 and 0.082, respectively, and a decline in absolute poverty from 1,172 mln. in 2000 to 689 mln. in 2015. These changes are explained to a large degree by the projected fast growth in India and China. The pro-poor growth scenario resulted in additional 253 mln. people rescued from poverty. Two more simulations are presented: (1) transfers being made to the poor in 2000, and (2) distribution-neutral growth occurring during 1970-2000. An annex discusses advantages of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of income distributions.

%0 Journal Article
%A Dikhanov, Yuri
%T Trends in Global Income Distribution, 1970-2000, and Scenarios for 2015
%D 2005
%J UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)
%U ,
%X The paper builds on the author’s prior research in areas of evolution of the global income distribution and of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of density functions. The 1970-2000 estimates are augmented with two 2015 scenarios: (a) distribution-neural growth (national distributions kept constant) and (b) pro-poor growth (the poor’s income grows at twice the average rate until 2015). The scenarios are based on historical 1990-2002 trends in GDP growth and UN population projections for 2015. Compared to 2000, the distribution-neutral growth scenario for 2015 shows a decline in the Gini – 0.300, Theil 1 and 2 – 0.114 and 0.082, respectively, and a decline in absolute poverty from 1,172 mln. in 2000 to 689 mln. in 2015. These changes are explained to a large degree by the projected fast growth in India and China. The pro-poor growth scenario resulted in additional 253 mln. people rescued from poverty. Two more simulations are presented: (1) transfers being made to the poor in 2000, and (2) distribution-neutral growth occurring during 1970-2000. An annex discusses advantages of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of income distributions.

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Dikhanov, Yuri
TI  - Trends in Global Income Distribution, 1970-2000, and Scenarios for 2015
PY  - 2005
JF  - UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)
UR  - ,
AB  - The paper builds on the author’s prior research in areas of evolution of the global income distribution and of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of density functions. The 1970-2000 estimates are augmented with two 2015 scenarios: (a) distribution-neural growth (national distributions kept constant) and (b) pro-poor growth (the poor’s income grows at twice the average rate until 2015). The scenarios are based on historical 1990-2002 trends in GDP growth and UN population projections for 2015. Compared to 2000, the distribution-neutral growth scenario for 2015 shows a decline in the Gini – 0.300, Theil 1 and 2 – 0.114 and 0.082, respectively, and a decline in absolute poverty from 1,172 mln. in 2000 to 689 mln. in 2015. These changes are explained to a large degree by the projected fast growth in India and China. The pro-poor growth scenario resulted in additional 253 mln. people rescued from poverty. Two more simulations are presented: (1) transfers being made to the poor in 2000, and (2) distribution-neutral growth occurring during 1970-2000. An annex discusses advantages of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of income distributions.

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Trends in Global Income Distribution, 1970-2000, and Scenarios for 2015
AU  - Dikhanov, Yuri
PY  - 2005
JF  - UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)
UR  - ,
AB  - The paper builds on the author’s prior research in areas of evolution of the global income distribution and of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of density functions. The 1970-2000 estimates are augmented with two 2015 scenarios: (a) distribution-neural growth (national distributions kept constant) and (b) pro-poor growth (the poor’s income grows at twice the average rate until 2015). The scenarios are based on historical 1990-2002 trends in GDP growth and UN population projections for 2015. Compared to 2000, the distribution-neutral growth scenario for 2015 shows a decline in the Gini – 0.300, Theil 1 and 2 – 0.114 and 0.082, respectively, and a decline in absolute poverty from 1,172 mln. in 2000 to 689 mln. in 2015. These changes are explained to a large degree by the projected fast growth in India and China. The pro-poor growth scenario resulted in additional 253 mln. people rescued from poverty. Two more simulations are presented: (1) transfers being made to the poor in 2000, and (2) distribution-neutral growth occurring during 1970-2000. An annex discusses advantages of the “quasi-exact” polynomial interpolation of income distributions.